Let's explore option 1 first. The CO of the Nimitz decides to be proactive and attempt to preempt the Japanese attack the next morning by launching the strike AC available before the sun goes down. The strike group consists of:
X12 A-7E's with Mk82s
X12 A-6E's with AGM-62 Walleye's
X12 F-14A's with Phoenixes/Sidewinders for escort and Strike CAP
The IJN Fleet is approx 500nm away which means the F-14 fuel situation will be tight so I plan on launching KA-6D tankers to be available to refuel on the return trip. Also I will make this first strike as automated as possible.
I setup an ASuW strike mission, made the targets only the 4 (so far) identified CVs, and then assigned all 3 squadrons with the F-14's set to escort. The A-7Es and A-6E's launched within 15min but for some reason the F-14's took longer to get airborne. Because the F-14's were tight on fuel I did not feel comfortable kicking up their speed to try to catch up - instead I just bumped it up a bit and hoped for the best. Perhaps this simulates the CAG saying we're running out of daylight so get the strike AC moving instead of waiting?
Below is an image of the strike groups enroute.
Below the A-7E's and A-6E's are starting their run into the target. The F-14's are still strung out behind them. I tried increasing their speed but then they started going RTB/Bingo fuel so I slowed them back down and started launching Phoenixes from the lead F-14's to try to clear the way for the strike thru the A6M5 Zero CAP.
The Phoenixes started targeting the Zero's but the odds were not great - thanks to distance and agility the hit probabilities were only 20-30% - same for the sidewinders later. Some of the Zeros were taken out - but definitely not as many as hoped. First symptom of asymmetrical warfare?
Things started happening fast as the strike AC got in range. Quickly they identified specific Kido Butai carriers (Kaga, Akagi, Soryu, etc). I did not try to start manual retargeting - just let it ride. Next the A-6E's/AGM-62s got in range and launched. Finally the A-7E's closed enough for their bomb runs.
Below is an image (very busy) of the strike where you see the AGM-62's en-route and the A-6E's already turned away to the west. You can also pick out the A-7s over the IJN Fleet with some red streaks representing their Mk82s:
Here's a closer shot:
The logfile flew by as the attack progressed - I had to export it afterwards to understand what happened. The AGM62's were by far the most effective weapon - approx 21 impacts per the logs. Unfortunately the AI targeting launched all of them against only 2 carriers - Akagi/Kaga - and the rest against the BB Kirishima. All 3 ships were sunk. If there had been a more evenly distributed targeting across the rest of the carriers there probably would have been more sinkings. Lessons learned for the Dec 7 full strike at dawn test I will do next…
There were only 2 Mk82 hits - 1 each on the BB Hiei and CL Abukuma. The A-7E profile was x/x/x per the loadout. For the dawn full strike they either need a better loadout or manual instructions to get down in the waves to increase the hits. Of course I will need to have the Strike CAP get there sooner to clear the IJN CAP better.
On the egress from the target the A-6 and 7's were chased by the remaining Zero CAP AC - and that is when they ran into staggered salvos of Phoenixes from the later F-14's as they came into range. At 20-30% hit probability there were some kills but not enough to prevent 3 A-7's from being shot down by lucky Zero shots - 20mm cannons are deadly in any time.
Below is the image of the egress w/pursuing Zero's and inbound Phoenixes.
I launched the KA-6D's to meet the returning strike for any AC that needed refueling (mainly F-14's).
Recovery was done at night.
Lessons learned:
1. Coordinating/timing multi AC groups on long-range missions w/fuel concerns can be complicated. If the F-14's had lead the assault there is a good chance the A-7's could have gotten through unscathed.
2. Modern AAM's vs early WW2 AC is not a done deal apparently. Because they are slower and more maneuverable it seems they also evade better?
3. Modern smart weapons w/no countermeasures present are accurate and deadly in any time period.
4. Dropping bombs on small moving targets from high altitude continues to be a low odds crap shoot with 1980 technology just like back in 1941.
So with the loss of 1/3 of his carrier strike force (including AC) Adm Nagumo, if still alive, would probably turn around and go home. This decision would have been strongly reinforced by the presence of high speed, non-prop driven AC, and AAM's and highly accurate/destructive ASM weapons. The 'American' technology would be both unexpected and shocking.
LOSSES:
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43x Mitsubishi A6M2 Type 0 Zero
1x IJN Kongo
54x Nakajima B5N2 Kate
45x Aichi D3A2 Val
1x IJN Kagi
1x IJN Akagi
As for the CO of the Nimitz - he achieved his goal of preventing Dec 7th - the surprise attack on Pearl. His strike results could have been better, he lost a few invaluable strike AC considering the time period, and expended large quantities of hard/impossible to replace ordinance (Phoenixes, Sidewinders, Walleyes).
EXPENDITURES:
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26x AIM-54A Phoenix
3x AIM-7F Sparrow III
24x AGM-62B Walleye II ER/DL
66x Mk82 500lb LDGP
And in the bigger Global Strategic perspective the above result may have been disastrous in the long term. The current time US might have no knowledge of the planned IJN attack on Pearl until the Nimitz magically appears with scifi technology and a story of damaging an IJN strike fleet and preventing an attack. The Japanese could have responded that the fleet was only on exercises and it experienced a dastardly surprise attack by the US. How would world opinion fall?
Finally, without the catalyst of "Remember Pearl Harbor!", when if ever would the US/public agree to entry into WW2 both in the Pacific and Europe? And with delayed or no entry of the US into WW2 who would ultimately win? Who would develop the atomic bomb first - well the Nimitz already had that one answered? Hmmm…
Hasty attack option tested - next is the 12/7 dawn attack. The Nimitz will be closer, fuel issues will be minimized, all strike AC will be involved, and if my computer can handle simulating the IJN First wave (over 200 AC), I will send 1 Squadron of F-14's vs the First wave in flight, a reduced Squadron to take on the remaining IJN CAP, leaving 3 F-14's on rotating CAP over the Nimitz. I will also incorporate the lessons learned from this strike on better targeting spread and better loadouts/attack profiles for the A-7's.
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